春(chun)節后銅價行情走勢如何？滬銅主(zhu)力(li)合約(yue)1804振蕩微漲(zhang)，日(ri)(ri)內交(jiao)投于53750-53200元/噸(dun)，尾盤收于53600元/噸(dun)，日(ri)(ri)微漲(zhang)0.02%，上(shang)方關注54000元/噸(dun)的整數關口壓制。期限結構方面，滬銅1804合約(yue)和1805合約(yue)正(zheng)價差維持至190元/噸(dun)，顯(xian)示遠期合約(yue)上(shang)漲(zhang)意愿攀升。

　　外(wai)盤方(fang)面，亞市倫(lun)銅(tong)(tong)振(zhen)蕩(dang)走(zou)強(qiang)，其中3個月(yue)倫(lun)銅(tong)(tong)日內交投(tou)于7179-7110美元/噸，現(xian)交投(tou)于7158美元/噸，日微漲(zhang)0.68%，目前倫(lun)銅(tong)(tong)運(yun)行于主要均線組之(zhi)上，技(ji)術形(xing)態(tai)強(qiang)于滬銅(tong)(tong)。持(chi)倉方(fang)面，2月(yue)22日，倫(lun)銅(tong)(tong)持(chi)倉量(liang)為31.8萬手，周減9186手，顯示空(kong)頭積極回補推動銅(tong)(tong)價走(zou)高(gao)。

　　市場方面(mian)，2月26日上海電解銅(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)現貨(huo)(huo)對當月合約報貼(tie)(tie)(tie)水(shui)(shui)260-貼(tie)(tie)(tie)水(shui)(shui)170元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，平(ping)(ping)水(shui)(shui)銅(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)成交價(jia)(jia)格52820-52960元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)。早市貿易商(shang)大量回歸，挺(ting)價(jia)(jia)意愿(yuan)明顯，好銅(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)意愿(yuan)報價(jia)(jia)貼(tie)(tie)(tie)水(shui)(shui)160元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)左(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)右(you)，平(ping)(ping)水(shui)(shui)銅(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)在貼(tie)(tie)(tie)水(shui)(shui)220元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)左(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)右(you)，成交多(duo)(duo)(duo)觀望。10點后(hou)，部(bu)分貿易商(shang)為換現進(jin)口(kou)(kou)銅(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)主動(dong)調降報價(jia)(jia)，好銅(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)至(zhi)貼(tie)(tie)(tie)水(shui)(shui)180元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)左(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)右(you)，成交有起(qi)色。平(ping)(ping)水(shui)(shui)銅(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)報價(jia)(jia)存分歧，國(guo)產(chan)(chan)平(ping)(ping)水(shui)(shui)銅(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)繼續挺(ting)價(jia)(jia)于貼(tie)(tie)(tie)水(shui)(shui)220元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)左(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)右(you)，但(dan)進(jin)口(kou)(kou)銅(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)一路擴降至(zhi)貼(tie)(tie)(tie)水(shui)(shui)260元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)左(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)右(you)。下游(you)逐漸(jian)復工，入市補貨(huo)(huo)量逐漸(jian)增(zeng)多(duo)(duo)(duo)，而下游(you)多(duo)(duo)(duo)青(qing)睞于低(di)(di)(di)端(duan)(duan)進(jin)口(kou)(kou)低(di)(di)(di)價(jia)(jia)貨(huo)(huo)源，造成市場貼(tie)(tie)(tie)水(shui)(shui)受低(di)(di)(di)端(duan)(duan)進(jin)口(kou)(kou)銅(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)的大幅拖累，低(di)(di)(di)端(duan)(duan)進(jin)口(kou)(kou)銅(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)與(yu)國(guo)產(chan)(chan)平(ping)(ping)水(shui)(shui)銅(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)的價(jia)(jia)差拉大至(zhi)30-40元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)區(qu)間，貿易投機商(shang)也乘勢壓價(jia)(jia)收貨(huo)(huo)。

　　日內(nei)，滬(hu)銅1804合約探底(di)回升至53600元(yuan)(yuan)/噸，因市(shi)場預計春節后中國銅市(shi)消費(fei)預期(qi)好轉，以(yi)及廢(fei)銅和銅精礦進(jin)口量環(huan)比下滑提振。未來伴隨(sui)著旺季到(dao)來，銅價或保持(chi)震(zhen)蕩走強態勢。短期(qi)銅市(shi)投資(zi)氣(qi)氛(fen)偏多，建(jian)議滬(hu)銅1804合約可背靠(kao)53100元(yuan)(yuan)之上逢低多，入場參(can)考53500元(yuan)(yuan)附近，目標關注54200元(yuan)(yuan)/噸。

　　行業(ye)方面，中(zhong)國海關數據(ju)顯示，1月中(zhong)國銅礦進口(kou)量為162.1萬噸，環比(bi)減少1.85%，但(dan)同比(bi)增(zeng)加24.94%，其中(zhong)進口(kou)自(zi)墨西(xi)哥的銅礦為145864噸，同比(bi)劇增(zeng)163.68。